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Chiltern Society HS2 newsletter
October 2011
October proved more interesting than anyone could have predicted.
- The fall from grace of Liam Fox, leading to Philip Hammond being moved and a new SoS for Transport being appointed.
- A backbench debate on HS2 in the House of Commons showed diverse views and that MPs away from the line are starting to wake up. This was confirmed by the number of MPs, who attended the Right Lines Charter parliamentary reception a few days later.
- At this debate a Labour backbencher confirmed Labour’s commitment to the project. Monday 31 October, Maria Eagle, shadow Transport Secretary announced support for a new alignment via Heathrow, the M40 and the Chiltern Line. This presents a whole new set of challenges for both 'yes' and 'no' campaigners.
- The Adam Smith Institute came out against the proposals for HS2.
- There has been a steady flow of articles in the press throughout the month.
- Natural England declare Beckstein’s Bats a potential showstopper for HS2 route.
November promises to be another interesting month.
- The Transport Select Committee is due to report, and this will be debated.
- The results of the Consultation should be available towards the end of the month.
The announcement of whether to continue with the proposed route was due to be made in December. I can believe that the new Secretary of State for Transport, Justine Greening MP may decide to take a little more time to consider this.
Secretary of State for Transport
With Liam Fox's fall from grace, Philip Hammond has been moved to replace Mr Fox as Secretary of State for Defence. The initial reaction is 'hurrah', but the question is 'Better the devil you know?' – so who is Justine Greening MP, the new Secretary of State for Transport?
Ms Greening has had rapid promotion. She was elected as MP for Putney, Roehampton & Southfields in May 2005. She has been a member of the Work and Pensions Select Committee. In 2007 Justine became a Shadow Treasury Minister and in 2009 moved to the Communities and Local Government Team and became Shadow Minister for London. Since May 2010 she has been Economic Secretary to the Treasury.
She has a degree in Economics from Southampton University, an MBA from the London Business School and is a Chartered Accountant. Before entering Parliament, she worked for PriceWaterhouseCoopers, GlaxoSmithKline and Centrica. With her professional background, hopefully, she will deal in fact, and see the obvious weaknesses in the existing case for HS2.
She is faced with a mountain of work. Not only does she need to get on top of her job at the DfT, she is supposed to make the decision on HS2 and ensure that an aviation policy is developed for delivery in 2012. The latter may be a problem for Ms Greening as MP for Putney she fought very hard against both Terminal 5 and the third runway at Heathrow. David Wighton in his article in the Times 17 October sets out the conflicts with her new position (see below).
The HS2 decision rests not only on the case put forward by HS2 Ltd, but also the 50,000+ responses to the Consultation, the detailed analysis thereof, and the Transport Select Committee's report.
According to Transport Times, edited by David Begg (Yes to HS2), it looked as though the announcement could be on 14 December 2011, with an announcement that Ms Greening would speak at their conference on 14 December, after making a speech in Parliament. Ms Greening now appears not be a speaker or even invited.
transporttimesevents.co.uk/…
A report on her first comments to Parliament, where She promised a "rational, sensible approach that looks at the facts".
epolitix.com/latestnews/…
Please write to Ms Greening to express your objective concerns and objections, and ask your friends and family away from the line to write. Do not forget to copy your correspondence to your MP. She can be contacted at
Westminster – House of Commons, London, SW1A 0AA
Department for Transport – Department for Transport, Great Minster House, 33 Horseferry Road, London SW1P 4DR
email – greeningj@parliament.uk
Transport Select Committee
The Committee accepted further submissions into evidence during late September and early October. These include submissions from 51M, HS2 Action Alliance, Chiltern Countryside Group, Greengauge 21 and HS2 Limited. The one from Heathrow Hub is interesting. These can be accessed from this link (to a PDF), They are a bit difficult as they are not catalogued parliament.uk/documents/…
The TSC, having completed taking evidence, is preparing its report to Parliament. I understand that this will lead to a further debate on HS2 in the chamber. It is difficult to predict what their conclusions will be, but I understand that dissenting members have the right to report as well. On that basis, I would expect to see both for and against points of view expressed. The report is expected some time in November.
Debate on HS2 in the Commons –
13 Oct 2011
The debate was reasonably well attended, with a lot of MPs wanting to speak, as is evidenced by the speaker having to limit MPs to 4min each. The substance of the debate was familiar, with MPs expressing both the pro and anti arguments.
For me there were a couple of highlights. Roy Godsiff MP (Birmingham Hall Green) (Lab) came out strongly against HS2, believing that it would deliver little benefit to Birmingham. In contrast John Woodcock MP (Barrow & Furness) (Lab) said "I have been pleased to restate Labour's deeply held, unequivocal commitment to this project, and we look forward to working across the House to make it happen". He also called for a bill for the whole 'Y'.
Theresa Villers MP Minister for Transport responded for the Government saying that she was satisfied with the business case. She was a bit disconcerted when asked why she persisted in using v 4.1 of the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which Sir Rod Eddington says offers wildly inaccurate demand predictions, instead of v 5.0 which was on her desk for sign off.
The fight will continue (this was the third debate on HS2), as other opportunities come up to debate HS2.
The following link takes you to Hansard for a full account of the debate. publications.parliament.uk/…
Right Lines Charter
The Right Lines Charter Group held a Parliamentary reception on 18th October, which was well attended by MPs. It was hosted by Iain Stewart MP for Milton Keynes, who is on the Transport Select Committee.
Jeremy Wright, MP for Kenilworth and Southam joins Charter – Coventry Telegraph.
coventrytelegraph.net/news/…
Adam Smith Institute issues report critical of HS2
The report is a high-level review of the case for HS2. Even without the further weaknesses identified by detailed analysis it concludes that there is not a compelling argument for HS2. Specifically:
- The economic case remains very weak with a poor Benefit Cost Ratio
- HSR systems around the world are heavily subsidised – six EU nations' (HSR) operations required an annual subsidy of US$42bn (£26bn)
- The environmental case is at best neutral, without the damage to the Chilterns
- The risk of cost rises is substantial
- Identifies that upgraded lines running at 200kph (125mph) are defined as High Speed Rail NB both the WCML and ECML have trains running at that speed.
Why not send a copy of the report to your MP?
adamsmith.org/files/ (takes you to a PDF file).
Contact your MP
The following link makes writing to your MP easy, you provide your details, the website proposes an e-mail, which you can modify. Please send the link to your friends away from the line.
highspeedrail.org.uk
No to HS2 – Events
October 22 – 1,000 people at Wendover organized by Wendover HS2 Action Group
bucksherald.co.uk/news/local-news/…
November 11 – Join the fun of a Night at the Races, a fund raising event organised by Stop HS2 – Amersham Action Group.
amersham.buckinghamshireadvertiser.co.uk/…
Tickets from chriswilson51@talktalk.net
HS2 Ltd issues report to justify 18 trains per hour – 26 October 2011
The report is pretty hard going, but my conclusion is that it says "We should be able to do it, given advances in technology and not using too high risk factors." The summary is at: hs2.org.uk/assets/…
There is a technical report as well, partially redacted. I would highlight "To produce this technical note, it was necessary to make certain assumptions about the possible locations of the junctions and stations on the 'Y' network. We have not yet concluded this work, which will be published in due course."
hs2.org.uk/publications/…
Proposed planning reforms and The National Trust
Sir Simon Jenkins, Chairman of the National Trust, tells Commons committee that there is no evidence that relaxing rules on development would help the economy.
bbc.co.uk/news/…
Petition against HS2
There was some confusion last month over whether paper petitions would be accepted – apparently they can be. Apologies for the misunderstanding. This petition was presented to Downing Street on 11 October.
bbc.co.uk/news/…
Did you fight to save the Chilterns?
A protest song against HS2, Please share with your friends and family.
youtube.com/user/TheSilverFox…
Miscellaneous Articles
Daily Telegraph – 5 October 2011
Rare bat could endanger high speed rail plans
Natural England have told HS2 Ltd that Bechstein's bats found in Bucks are a potential 'show-stopper' for HS2.
telegraph.co.uk/news/…
Daily Telegraph – 7 October 2011
HSR to link Heathrow and Gatwick.
There is apparently a proposal to link Heathrow and Gatwick with an HSR link to create 'Heathwick'. From what I see this is a bit like smoke in the wind. However if it is serious, it would strengthen the arguments for a Heathrow HSR interchange.
telegraph.co.uk/finance/news…
The Scotsman – 10 Oct 2011
High speed train link the fast track to losing out.
Brian Monteith, Policy Director of Think Scotland, slams HS2 as a waste of money, and argues that upgrading the existing railways will improve the lives of many more ordinary Scots on a daily basis.
scotsman.com/politics/…
Daily Telegraph – 10 October 2011
Without a new airport, British businesses will be left behind.
Boris Johnson sets out the arguments for an airport in the Thames Estuary. The question then is 'Is HS2 on the right track?' It seems like we need an integrated transport infrastructure policy.
telegraph.co.uk/comment/…
Daily Telegraph – 12 October 2011
Hands off our Land
English Heritage unhappy with Planning Reforms has extracted an agreement from the Government to maintain the present levels of heritage protection in Planning Policy Statement 5
telegraph.co.uk/earth/…
Can growth take off without a third runway?
David Wighton sets out the arguments.
Click to show/hide the article
Can growth take off without a third runway?
By David Wighton. Journalist with The Times
Justine Greening, the new Transport Secretary, hates aircraft noise. This will create a headache for business leaders. The implosion of Liam Fox's career has caused some serious and unexpected collateral damage. The fallout from the Defence Secretary's resignation has blown a hole in hopes of reopening the debate over the third runway at Heathrow.The mini-reshuffle that resulted has brought Justine Greening into the Cabinet as Transport Secretary. Bright, young and a good media performer, Ms Greening impressed many in the transport world as a junior Treasury minister, not least for steering the Government through a U-turn on air passenger duty.
From the aviation industry's point of view there is just one small snag. Ms Greening is the MP for Putney, which sits right under the flightpath to Heathrow, and she has been one of the most prominent opponents of expansion at the airport.
The scrapping of plans for a third runway was one of the Conservative Party's most controversial election pledges. Many Tory MPs agree with Lord Adonis, the former Labour Transport Secretary, who wrote in The Times recently that it was an act of national self-mutilation to rule out new runways, not just at Heathrow, but also at Gatwick and Stansted.
Ms Greening's appointment is a particular blow to these critics because there were signs that the ground was shifting slightly within government. The industry has convinced many doubters that London needs a hub airport with more capacity if Britain is to remain internationally competitive. One of the arguments deployed by the opponents of a new runway – the increase in carbon emissions – seems to be losing its traction.
Preventing expansion at Heathrow would merely move flights elsewhere, to other UK airports or to Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt or Dubai. Concerns about emissions are in any case increasingly taking a back seat in government as the economy has weakened. There has certainly been a shift within the Treasury, where ministers talk about the need to reopen the debate.
That debate now centres largely on noise. A third runway would involve a new flight path over the capital, subjecting a fresh swath of London to aircraft disruption. Supporters point to the huge improvement in aircraft volume over the past 20 years. According to the Department for Transport, 2 million people in London were subjected to aircraft noise in the 1970s, a figure that is now down to a quarter of a million.
Nobody disputes that there will be further advances in reducing aircraft noise. The question is, who should benefit from those advances, local residents or the wider economy? George Osborne, the Chancellor, is said to be convinced that it should be the wider economy, while the other camp includes Theresa Villiers, the minister responsible for aviation at the Department for Transport.
It is unclear where Prime Minister David Cameron stands – his wife, Samantha, is said to be fiercely anti-noise – but the appointment of Ms Greening suggests that, at the very least, expansion at Heathrow is not his top transport priority.
People who have discussed transport with him recently say that the priority is clearly High Speed 2, the proposed new rail line from London to Birmingham and the North. The plan has run into stiff opposition, not just from MPs whose constituencies would be affected, but also from those who question the economic benefits.
Philip Hammond, the former Transport Secretary who is replacing Dr Fox at Defence, was a very strong advocate, and some in the rail industry had predicted that HS2 would be put on the back burner if he was reshuffled. But the Prime Minister appears totally committed and is said to hope that Ms Greening will be more effective at selling the idea.
Even the most optimistic third runway supporters concede that the ruling out of expansion in the coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrats makes it politically impossible to change course while the coalition lasts.
This puts the Department for Transport under pressure to come up with an alternative. It recently refloated the idea of a high-speed rail link between Heathrow and Gatwick to form a "virtual hub". But experts question whether it would be possible to get passengers between the two airports quickly enough to compete with single-site hubs. Another option would be to use Northolt, which is closer to Heathrow, although the orientation of its runway is a problem.
Supporters of the third runway admit that Ms Greening's appointment will lend weight to those arguing for the most radical solution: a new £50 billion airport in the Thames Estuary. In his response to the Government's aviation strategy consultation, Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, warns that without a new airport London will become "a destination on the end of a branch line" and risk losing international business, tourism and trade.
Many business leaders are loath to give up hope of a west of London solution. They are sceptical of claims that any new airport could be financed without some public money (whereas the third runway would be privately funded) and point out that the transport budget is going to be very constrained for years because of HS2.
Shifting the airport to the east would redraw the entire economic geography of the South East, causing upheaval for all the businesses that are located west of London partly because of proximity to Heathrow. This huge disruption means that the fight for expansion at Heathrow must continue while other options are explored.
Given the self-imposed constraints, it is hard to see how the Government's aviation strategy, due next year, could come up with a credible long-term solution. But Ms Greening could at least provide some short-term respite if she was prepared to take on local community lobbies.
More immediately, she faces a decision on whether to cut back night flights from Heathrow to Asian destinations such as Hong Kong and Singapore. The industry argues that the flights are vital if Britain is to compete with Paris and Frankfurt, but most Tory MPs in West London want them banned. Ms Greening's decision will show whether she can stand above her constituency interest. It will also be another test of how far Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne are prepared to go to support growth.
City AM – 17 October 2011
Time to shake up transport policies
Editorial slamming HS2 and seeking to change the priorities
cityam.com/news-and-analysis/…
BBC – 18 Oct 2011
Heathrow Airport – Justine Greening will be fair
DfT says JG will carry out her duties 'fairly and responsibly'. BA and BAA worried as JG was an ardent campaigner against the third runway.
bbc.co.uk/news/…
Reuters – 19 October 2011
EU unveils €50 bn infrastructure growth plan
This is for 2015-2020. €32bn for transport, €9bn on energy projects and €9bn on broadband. The biggest piece of the transport budget is to be spent on upgrading existing railway line to high speed. (EU definition 125mph), so it looks like nothing for HS2, but maybe the GWML upgrade to Cardiff might be able to access it. The reality is that spread over 27 nations this is almost nothing.
uk.reuters.com/article/…
Daily Mail – 19 October 2011
Greening says decision on HS2 will be a rational one
dailymail.co.uk/news/…
The Guardian – 19 October 2011
The bizarre methodology of Philip Hammond's transport economics
Christian Wolmar sets out the challenges facing Justine Greening.
guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/…
Rail.Co – 25 October 2011
First rail freight service on HS1
An interesting article on freight from Poland to the UK using HS1. This could ignite the debate on freight on HS2, which currently is not on the cards
rail.co/2011/10/25/first-rail-freight…
Railway Magazine – 27 October 2011
DfT extend WCML Franchise for 8 months to December 8, 2012
A short extension, but an interesting article on lengthening Pendolinos to 11 car trains.
railwaymagazine.co.uk/news/…
BBC News – 31 October 2011
HS2 would link with Heathrow in proposed alternative
Apparently Maria Eagle, Shadow Transport Secretary will be announcing a new route for HS2, connecting to Heathrow and then following the M40 skirting Bicester and Banbury.
bbc.co.uk/news/…
Yes to HS2 response to Labour's announcement – 31 October 2011
Maria Eagle's announcement seems to have thrown the Yes campaign somewhat.
campaignforhsr.com/response-to…
Chiltern Society HS2 DVD
We have DVD's in stock. Cost £5.00 + p&p. Please contact the Chiltern Society office direct, or follow one of the links in this website to buy one.
Feedback
If there are other areas you would like us to cover please .
John Gladwin
HS2 Campaign Action Team
