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Chiltern Society HS2 newsletter
May 2011
This month the main interest has been the Consultation with the Roadshows set up by HS2 and the Information Days organised by Action Groups along the route.
There have been some other interesting items. There is a brief analysis of the Appraisal of Sustainability. See the note on 51M a group of Concils against HS2.
Consultation
Local Road Shows have finished. There are however Road Shows further up the line. Details of more shows and locations for the above can be found at: http://highspeedrail.dft.gov.uk/roadshow
Roadshows were held at:
Gt Missenden on 8 May
Chalfont St Giles on 9 May
Wendover on 13 May
Amersham on 15 May
The roadshows proved to be frustrating, and made quite a few people angry. They were designed to answer high level, basic questions. The answer to the majority of detailed questions was ‘We have not gone to that level of detail yet. We will address that, if this proposal is given the go-ahead in December.
Areas of particular concern related to:
Spoil
HS2 had given an amount of 680,000 cubic metres of spoil from the tunnels from M25 to Amersham. It turns out that they forgot there were 2 tunnels. They also forgot that compacted spoil expands by between 1.5 and 1.8 times its volume, and they had included nothing for the cuttings, The new calculation is 12,000,000 cubic metres of spoil, the majority of it will need to be removed.
Construction Costs
When asked why the construction costs had not risen, despite deepening the cuttings in the Chilterns by 5m, an economic advisor said that they used average costs for cuttings and tunnels given to them by the engineers, thus no adjustment was made.
Workcamps / transfer depots
Advisors confirmed that there will be a site near the M25 entrance to the tunnels, and that all the spoil from the tunnels will be moved from there. They could not confirm where it will be moved to.
Aquifers
As they had not gone into that detail, advisors were unaware that the Misbourne aquifer provides 60% of the potable water for the Misbourne Valley and feeds the Colne, which supplies 20% of London’s drinking water. When this was pointed out and that the aquifer comprises fractured chalk, an advisor with Arup’s (consulting engineers to HS2) commented ‘If there is any risk of pollution the aquifer, we will not drill through it’.
Footpaths and Rights of Way
The initial response was that they would be diverted. When it was pointed out that two to three mile diversion were not realistic, the tune changed to they will be reconnected, but no details of how were available. What was clear is that there are no costs included for bridges
Redevelopment of Euston
This is estimated to take 8 years, and will cause substantial disruption to the residents and travellers using the station. 2 economic advisors confirmed that no ‘disbenefits’ have been included in the Economic Case.
Loss of Business
Along the line many businesses rely on tourism, walking, cycling to make a living. An estate agent confirmed that his business has been seriously impacted already. When asked, both economic advisors confirmed that nothing had been built into the Economic Case for this
Noise
There were sound booths, which were supposed to give you an idea of what the train would sound like. Generally you could tell when a train passed, but a visitor who is a sound engineer established that they were using average dba over an 18 hour period, which reduces the noise levels experienced dramatically.
Alternatives
An assumption in the HS2 Business Case is that will be no more investments in trains or infrastructure on the WCML from 2016. This seems unlikely as it would be 10 years before HS2 could provide new capacity. Will the travelling public put up with that?
My conclusion is that the Economic Case has a number of serious deficiencies, which need to be addressed.
In particular, the costs should be reviewed in detail by accountants experienced in major infrastructure projects.
The Consultation is flawed in that no alternative routes have been looked at by the Appraisal of Sustainability (AoS), and the AoS had not looked at the route in sufficient detail to determine whether there are environmental grounds (such as aquifers), which would dictate a change of route.
HS2 Blown over at Chalfont St Giles
On the lighter side, see what happened at the consultation in Chalfont St Giles.
Transport Select Committee
Submissions to the Transport Select Committee closed on 16 May 2011. If you are brave enough, the submissions are now on line, including that made by the Chiltern Society.
51M
51M is a group of Borough, County and District Councils who have formed an Alliance to fight HS2. All the Councils in Bucks are members. The fighting fund is now substantially in excess of £1m. This link takes you to their website.
You can see their submission to the Transport Select Committee by following 'the submissions' link, in the Transport Select Committee paragraph above.
Economic Case
In April HS2 released a substantial amount of data on their website. This falls into two principal areas.
These comprise:
• The Modelling and Appraisal Approach
• Further Analysis of the Demand and Benefits of HS2
• Model Output Spreadsheets
• Documents supporting the 2010 Supplemental Reports
Freedom of Information Requests
These comprise a list of FoI requests which can be viewed in either alphabetical order or date order. In a significant number of cases the information being requested has not been made available.
Appraisal of Sustainability (AoS)
We have looked at the non-technical summary of the AoS. The document is basically a description of the route with some notes. The emphasis of the document is on economic sustainability, as demonstrated by an abstract from The Appraisal of Sustainability Process
5.1.1 To determine the extent to which the proposed scheme may be considered a sustainable development it was necessary first to define ‘sustainability’ as it is relevant to high speed rail. The AoS process has adapted for its own use the four sustainable development priorities from the UK Sustainable Development Strategy: Securing the Future 1. These have formed the overarching structure for considering sustainability impacts.
When it deals with environmental matters, it uses words like ‘try to avoid’ ‘minimise’, ‘careful planning’. There is no assessment of the impact of cutting footpaths and rights of way. Although it claims to look at alternatives in Purpose.
1.1.2 The Government’s preference for the proposed route described here is based on how well it would fulfil a number of considerations when compared with other alternatives: its achievement of wider transport and economic objectives, its construction costs, its operational requirements, the practicalities of building it and its sustainability performance, including its environmental effects.
This indicates alternatives, however in 6.1.2, it is clear that the AoS is not looking at alternatives.
6.1.2 The Government’s proposed scheme is the product of some two years of work by HS2 Ltd to examine a large number of possible alternative routes and stations. This preference reflects its strategic transport and economic merits, its operational capabilities, the practicalities and costs of building it, its sustainability performance and its overall environmental impacts. The main alternatives that have been considered are reported in the consultation document, High Speed Rail: Investing in Britain's Future.
If you would like a bit more detail, please follow this link to our review.
The following link takes you to the DfT's PDF of the non-technical summary of the AoS. (Left click to view the PDF in a new window. Right click to download it to your computer).
The following link takes you to the Summary page for the AoS on the DfT site, from where you can navigate to the various parts o f the report and its appendices.
Chiltern Society DVD
The society has produced a DVD showing the impact of HS2 on the Chilterns, and highlighting the Economic impact for the Country. The voice over is by Geoffrey Palmer. This has been sent to every MP in the country. You can see it here. It is also available for purchase from the Society for £5.70 including post and packing.
Heathrow and HS2
This report in Skyport gives details of 11 possible routes to link HS2 to Heathrow. Costs vary between £7.3bn and £8.7bn. This cost has apparently not been included in the HS2 ‘Y’ case.
Capacity Increase on WCML
This describes the new 11 car Pendolinos, of which the first one will be operational this summer. It seems that part of Rail Package 2 are being introduced, with the last trains being delivered in 2019.
McNulty Report and Hammond on ending subsidies
Sir Roy McNulty a respected transport manager has produced a report for the Government on how to deal with overcrowding on the railways. His basic conclusions are that UK railways cost too much to run (reduce cost by £1bn), and that subsidies should be eliminated. An interesting theory, but what will it do for demand on the railways and the Economic Case for HS2 This article in the Evening Standard gives to the background.
This article in the Guardian reports on Mr Hammond’s response.
National Infrastructure Plan
In October 2010 the Government introduced a National Infrastructure Plan(links to a PDF). Reading it, it makes a lot of sense. One of the key elements of the Plan is:
4.2 In addition, the Government has identified a new hierarchy for infrastructure investment that builds on the approach to capital investment in the Spending Review to inform investment decisions: 1
• Maintenance and smarter use of assets.
The priority is to make the best use of the extensive assets that are already in place through maintenance and demandmanagement. There needs to be a much stronger emphasis on use of innovative demand management without stifling growth. For example, the managed motorways programme is using technology to maximise the available capacity, varying speed limits and enabling use of the hard shoulder at busy times.
• Targeted action to tackle network stress points and develop networks.
Where maintenance and demand management investment needs to be supplemented, the focus of new capital investment should be on pinch points to enhance resilience and capacity of the network overall and where new networksneed to be developed. Small investments can often be much more cost effective in tackling issues like congestion.
• Transformational large scale capital projects.Significant investment in new or replacement infrastructure should only be considered where it is a part of a clear long term strategy, is affordable and where maintenance or small scale investment will not meet future need.
If one looks at London to Manchester and Leeds by rail, meeting the forecast increase in demand by upgrading the West Coast Main Line seems to fit firmly into the first 2 points. I am sure Philip Hammond thinks that HS2 falls into the third category but the presumption is that 1 & 2 come before 3.
Eddington Report
The Eddington Report recommended the same approach of upgrading existing infrastructure rather than ‘Vanity’ schemes. (Please note that the link above is to a PDF. Left click the link to view the PDF in a new window. Right click to download it to your computer).
Diesel and Jet Fuel from Algae
This is an old article from the Guardian, but is still interesting. It raises the question ‘Should we retain diesel trains?’
Cheryl Gillan under Pressure in Wales
HS2 campaigners in Wales trying to pressurize Cheryl Gillan.
Chequers Walk
The protest walk around Chequers continues. People are walking everyday and posting blogs and photographs. I particularly like the attached. They say that self-interest can have a significant effect on people’s attitudes.
We would like more people to take part. If you would like to take part, for details, contact Trish at the Chiltern Society on 01494 771250 or .
The walk will continue daily until the end of the Consultation on 29 July 2011. I can personally recommend it, the scenery is stunning. If you make the effort to climb Coombe Hill, you can see where HS2 is planned to skirt Wendover.
If there are other areas you would like us to cover please contact John at .
John Gladwin
HS2 Campaign Action Team
