bullet Anti-HS2 funds

Please contribute to one or both of our anti-HS2 funds: Legal Fund, Fighting Fund.

bullet HS2 meets the Misbourne

Notes from the bilateral meeting with HS2 on the impact of tunnelling through the Misbourne Valley can be downloaded here.

bullet Environmental audit

Bucks County Council have updated their baseline environmental audit. Read more here (9MB PDF).

bullet Fun fund

Get the protest song by Dirty Mavis. Each sale contributes funds to the HS2 fight.

bullet Join

Become a member of the Chiltern Society.
Join one of the online campaigns (see top right for Facebook):
Twitter Twitter

Share this page with your online network:
Share this

< HS2 homepage  |  < Previous page

Chiltern Society HS2 newsletter

January 2012

Justine Greening's announcement on January 10th of the decision to proceed with the current alignment, albeit with some modifications, overshadowed everything else.

The initial reactions ranged from despair to anger. I was at Great Missenden, where there were a lot of people and a lot of media. The decision should not come as a surprise as it was the middle of three options available. Although this battle has been lost, there is a long way to go in this war.

So what are the next steps?

  • A number of organizations are looking at asking for a Judicial Review. This involves applying to the High Court for permission. This must be done within three months of the challenged decision. The grounds for a review appear to relate to:
    • The Consultation was flawed
    • The Assessment of Sustainability was not carried out in sufficient depth
    • The requirements of Planning Policy Statement 7 have not been met. To develop infrastructure in a National Park or AONB requires the Government to declare 'National Interest' and to review in detail alternative routes that avoid the protected area.

  • The Government needs to commission an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). This will be a detailed examination, which will take approximately one year to complete

  • There will need to be a Consultation on the EIA

  • Concurrent with the EIA, more detailed studies will be made to determine the engineering design

  • The completion of the above will lead to the introduction of a hybrid bill. For the Government this has the advantage that it combines aspects of private and public bills, enabling other public legislation to be overridden. The disadvantage is that interest parties have the right to petition against the bill. Their petitions are heard by a standing committee. Interested parties include landowners, local government & charitable organisations. Crossrail took 18 months to clear the standing committee

As you can see the above offer a lot of opportunities for delay, changes etc. At the same time, there is the opportunity to lobby MPs, Ministers etc. Areas where the Government have weaknesses include the economy, which is not recovering quickly and the lack of a National Transportation Infrastructure Plan. The Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) has also declined, which offers another risk to the Government's Plan.

The latter was demonstrated perfectly by the announcement of support for new runway capacity in the South-East, with proposals for a new Airport in the Thames Estuary. This should bring the third runway at Heathrow back into focus. The Government has also announced that a draft aviation policy framework will be published for Consultation in March 2012, with a view to formal adoption in March 2013.

The Chiltern Society's initial response is on our website. Alison Doggett, Chairman, questions whether the Government has begun to address the real issues.
http://www.chilternsociety.org.uk/hs2/rel-jan12-01.php

The DfT published a set of other documents, related to:
• Blight and compensation
• Growth
• The Consultation
• Mitigation
• Line of Route

Each section then contains further documents. These are detailed below with links.

The Government responded to the Transport Select Committee's report on HSR on 23rd January, and completed it's Triennial Review of HS2 Limited.

Last but not least, the DfT is recruiting to replace Brian Briscoe, Chairman and Alison Munro, Chief Executive of HS2 Limited. It seems strange to make such a change at this point in time.

 

Department for Transport Reports

Along with the decision, the DfT has published a set of documents under the following headings.

You will appreciate that with the amount of information provided, it will take time to assess each document. We have looked at some of the above documents, and will consider the rest later.

Growth
The Economic Case for HS2 has been updated

  • To use 2011 Present Value (PV), compared to 2009 (PV) used previously
  • For Economic Forecasts
  • Patterns in Demand
  • The economic model used is being enhanced for the evaluation of the 'Y' route

This has resulted in:

  • A reduction in rail revenue, wider economic benefits (WEIs) and capital expenditure on the leg to Birmingham.
  • An increase in the operating costs, and capital expenditure on the 'Y'
  • Very minor increases in the Economic benefits excluding WEIs
  • A reduction in the Business Cost Ratios including WEIs
    • First leg – from 2.0 to 1.7 (1.4 without WEIs)
    • 'Y' – from 2.6 to 2.2 (1.7 without WEI's)

The increase in operating costs and decline in revenues accounts for most of this reduction.

The major anomaly is the reduction in capital cost of the first leg from £20.2bn to £18.8bn, which is odd given that inflation has been over 6%, and the amount of additional mitigation Justine Greening talked about. The capital cost in 2009 was £17.8bn increased to £20.2bn in 2011PV. Thus despite the additional mitigation capital costs have bee reduced by £1.4bn.

The Value for Money Statement makes interesting reading, including an adjustment for the value of landscape in the Adjusted BCR, along with WEIs. There is also a list of Judgement Items, including Water Environment and Biodiversity, which appear not to be valued. Overall it indicates that the basis of the Economic Case is still suspect.

Consultation
The Consultation Summary Report gives the basis for preparing the responses

  • There were 54,909 responses, 53,367 from individuals
  • There were 12,782 responses critical of the Consultation process
  • Q1 which was biased to deliver a Yes, in fact had less than 50% of respondents in favour
  • Although there were 54,909 responses, the maximum number to any one question was 38,442. Although this is doubtful as further analysis indicates 45,092 responded to one question
  • There were 1,621 responses advocating an integrated national transport strategy

The responses were generally against the proposal. No weight was given to submissions from local government or other organisations representing a large number of people. An example is the call for a National Transport Strategy, where most of these submissions were from organisations with a large membership.

Overall it is clear that Ms Greening has completely ignored the results of the Consultation.

Reducing the Impact on the Environment and Local Communities
The Summary of Effects of HS2 London to West Midlands Route Refinements is a short document which summarises the changes made

  • The total length is 140 miles of which 22.5 miles will be in tunnel, 56.5 miles in cuttings, 40 miles on viaducts or embankments
  • The impact of noise on houses will be reduced
  • The EIA will offer the opportunity for substantially more mitigation
  • Para 3.4 is cynical description of mitigation in the AONB. It talks about 3.75 miles in cuttings, but ignores the fact that the depth has been substantially reduced
  • They claim that the change of route will avoid an important aquifer
  • The costs will be reduced by approximately £400m

Ms Greening stated that just 1.2miles will be visible in the Chilterns, whereas with the reduction in depth of the cuttings north of South Heath, over 5 miles will be visible. The reduction in depth will leave a line of catenary towers across the landscape, like a set of jagged teeth.

Line of Route
The maps set out the revised route and enable you to look at the depth of cuttings

In the Chilterns the major changes relate to:

  • M25 to Hyde Heath – the tunnel along the Misbourne Valley has been moved westward, crossing the Misbourne at Chalfont St Giles, avoiding Old Amersham, crossing the Misbourne and A413 at Shardeloes and exiting to the north of Hyde Heath, eliminating the open cutting at Mantles Farm.
  • South Heath to Wendover – the line has been moved nearer to South Heath, and the cuttings have been reduced. This increases the risk of noise and visual intrusion.

The documents are listed below, and can be accessed on the link provided.

Blight and Compensation

Growth

Consultation

Reducing the impact on the local environment and communities

Line of Route

 

Transport Select Committee

The Government's response to the TSC was published on 23 January.

The response is dismissive of most of the recommendations either saying that further work is being done or that the time penalty negates the particular recommendation. The recommendations have generally been answered in pairs. References are also made to the other papers issued with the route decision. Interesting responses include:

  • The Government Framework on Aviation will make clear the strategic links between aviation and HSR. (One might wonder whether this should be sorted out before decisions are taken)
  • The business case will continually evolve. We will look to make available the information. However they ignored the request to show that HS2 would be affordable alongside sustained investment in the classic network.
  • "I am currently considering the best approach for funding of local major transport schemes" – comment from Justine Greening. (Does this suggest that local schemes will be axed for HS2?)
  • The Government believe that designing at a lower speed to follow motorway corridors would not provide the benefits to justify it, and the route announced today is the superior option. (in other words, lower speed = lower benefits)
  • The Government is committed to developing a full Y shaped network for HS2. We are confident that the Government can find an appropriate solution to provide confidence in the delivery of the Y

See the response in detail at parliament.uk

 

Right Lines Charter

Charter members respond to the HS2 route decision. There are links to the responses from individual members on rightlines' website here.


Transport Times Conference

This much delayed conference finally took place on 26 January with a keynote speech by Justine Greening. View the speech below…



…or you can read it in the Bucks Herald's report here.


Anywhere Working

As reported previously, the DfT have been promoting working from home, video conferencing etc in an initiative led by Norman Baker, Transport Minister.

The latest move in this is the creation of a web portal AnywhereWorking.org. It is sponsored by companies such as Microsoft, Nokia, Vodaphone and Regus. Personally I believe it makes a lot of sense. It also demonstrates the lack of joined-up thinking at the DfT. Or maybe they do not believe it will work, and therefore the additional capacity created by HS2 is necessary. See the Dft's news article about this on their website.

 

New Economic Foundation – Response to HS2 Consultation

NEF is not for or against HS2. It is more interested in the decision making process.

In this report it finds that process to be flawed, with inadequate information available. This link takes you to the executive summary, where there is also an opportunity to download the full report.


New West Coast rail franchise to deliver 28,000 more seats per day

On 20 January the DfT announced that a new franchise would run on the WCML from December 2012 to March 2026, with an option to extend for 20 months. (Does this mean that they already expect a delay in HS2?).

A total of 106 Pendolino carriages will be added, allowing for 31 existing trains to be lengthened from 9 to 11 carriages and a further 4 trains per day. The franchise will allow the bidders to vary timetables on each day of the week. It is also stated that HS2 will be needed as they expect to run out of capacity. This is obviously good news for passengers. It still leaves the possibility to go to 12 carriage trains and to reconfigure first class to second class. Read the press release on the DfT's website.


Contact your MP

This website makes writing to your MP easy, you provide your details, the website proposes an e-mail, which you can modify.

Please send a link to the website to your friends away from the line. How about sending them a link to the Parliamentary Library briefing paper? This will keep the issue on the boil.

 

Miscellaneous Articles

Yorkshire Post – 15 December 2011
Maria Eagle: High speed rail is too vital to be shunted aside
Ms Eagle sets out Labour's view of a new HSR being necessary, but via Heathrow to avoid the 'environmental' opposition in the Chilterns.
yorkshirepost.co.uk

Chronicle Live – 21 December 2011
Focus on where train fare rises will hit hardest
Report from the North East on how fare increases are unnecessary, when the Government is wasting money on HSR. Good news the North East is waking up
chroniclelive.co.uk

The Huffington Post – 22 December 2011
The Importance of High Speed Rail to the UK's Future
An article by the the Managing Director of Hitachi Rail Europe giving, a not surprisingly biased view on HSR
huffingtonpost.co.uk

The Guardian – 10 Jan 2012
HSR – The greatest waste of public money after aircraft carriers
Simon Jenkins, chair of the National Trust lambasts proposals
guardian.co.uk

Rail Express – 12 January 2012
HS2 approval secures freight rail growth
DB Schenker welcomes the Government's decision
railexpress.co.uk

The Guardian – 14 January 2012
HS2 Not the Best Value – says Government Report
guardian.co.uk

The Guardian – 19 January 2012
Don't dismiss Nimbyism – it's the default mode of politics
Simon Jenkins writes an insightful article labeling David Cameron a nimby
guardian.co.uk

Landscape Institute – 19 January 2012
Comment: Simon Watkins on HS2
This is a thoughtful commentary on the pressures on the landscape
landscapeinstitute.org

Money Week – 20 January 2012
Should we go ahead with HS2?
An Investment Review on HS2
Click here to show/hide the transcribed article

Should we go ahead with HS2?

The government has approved plans for a high-speed rail network (HS2), but opposition is strong. Does the economic case stack up? Simon Wilson reports.

What's been announced?
The government has agreed to build High Speed 2 (HS2), a new £32.7bn high-speed (225mph) rail network linking London to Birmingham, cutting the journey time to 45 minutes – and eventually connecting to both Leeds and Manchester. Last week, the transport secretary, Justine Greening, gave the line the go-ahead, and announced a series of adjustments to the route from Euston to Birmingham to appease campaigners from southern England's Tory heartlands; about 22.5 miles of the new route will now be underground, an increase of 50% on the original plan. The announcement means it's now more likely that HS2 will be built, but it's far from a done deal.

Why's that?
Given the incredibly lengthy building timetable and the weak economic case for going ahead with the line, it is feasible that the political will to carry on will wilt. Between now and April, 18 local authorities opposing the line could seek a judicial review, introducing delays at the outset. Consultation on compensation for affected property-owners begins this spring, a parliamentary bill to approve the first phase is due in autumn 2013, and construction is due to last from 2017 to 2026 (Birmingham) and 2033 (Leeds and Manchester). The bulk of the media reaction – greeting HS2 as insanely expensive and built on all kinds of false premises – will have offered encouragement to those determined to stop the scheme. John Redwood, the Tory ex-cabinet minister, was one of many voices arguing that HS2 "doesn't offer sufficient value for money at the moment". He predicts that the next government in 2015 might drop it.

Who is against the scheme?
Both the Financial Times and The Economist regard HS2 as a Concorde-style vanity project that should be scrapped; an expensive way of achieving very little and conceivably doing a great deal of harm. The trenchant opposition of Britain's two leading business newspapers is worrying, given the whole point of the exercise is to boost British business. HS2 has been sold as an opportunity to bridge the north-south divide and transform the north's prospects. But the evidence from France and Spain is that the already-dominant hub city (Paris, Madrid, London) benefits far more from high-speed links than the regional city (Lyon, Seville, Birmingham). Moreover, previously well-served cities that the new line bypasses (eg, Stoke, Crewe, Rugby) inevitably suffer. The modest time savings involved (given business people can work perfectly happily on their laptops on existing trains) mean the cost is hard to justify on economic grounds.

Are there no economic benefits?
Super-high-speed rail makes sense for countries with cheap energy and long distances between big cities – like China or the United States. But for countries such as England, it's very different. The nearest comparable system is the new "Frya" high-speed service in the Netherlands, which opened two years ago and is already close to financial collapse, reports Andrew Gilligan in The Sunday Telegraph. Like Britain, Holland has a dense network of conventional services and relatively short distances between big cities. In light of the modest amount of time saved, passengers have shunned the premium high-speed fares and trains are running up to 85% empty. The 103-mile route, linking Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Breda and Antwerp (in Belgium), cost more than £7bn to build and is losing £320,000 a day.

How much will HS2 cost?
Even by the government's own figures, the economic case for HS2 is unconvincing. The Department for Transport assesses projects by using a benefit/cost ratio (BCR), taking anything below 1.5 (ie, a projected £1.50 return for each £1 invested) as "low value for money". In March 2010, the (Labour) government put the BCR at 2.7; by February last year it fell to 2.0, and in the economic rationale for the project published last week, the projected ratio was just 1.7. Worse, that figure includes guesses for so-called "wider economic impacts" with no "firm evidence base" – such as the putative boost to business from making it easier to visit customers and investors, and speculative guesses about how many new jobs might be created. Discounting them, the ratio falls to 1.4, and even – if you include the government's latest predictions for economic growth and demand for rail – down to 0.9. In other words, it's loss-making. At the same time, the projected BCR for upgrading the current west-coast line (longer trains, platforms, etc) has jumped from 1.9 to 4.0 – offering solid value for money. HS2 has been given the green light, but the debate is only just beginning.

What's the case in favour?
There are plenty of pro-HS2 voices in t he north of England. For example, Sir Richard Leese, the leader of Manchester City Council and long-time advocate of HS2, argues that a new, separate, high-speed rail network is the "only cost-effective way of extending an existing network that is becoming increasingly congested". Moreover, it will free up capacity on the existing network for commuter services and intercity services for smaller towns. Leese and other advocates also argue that however expensive HS2 might seem, it will ultimately be self-financing by giving a boost to jobs and investment. Leese reckons the Paris-Lyon line, opened in 1981, has paid for itself in this way, and that the high-speed lines in Spain are the only profitable bits of that network.

www.moneyweek.com

BBC Scotland – 26 January 2012
Scottish Government demands HSR timetable
Ministers complain about Westminster's wishy-washy commitments to extend the line. (Forget £34bn you can see £68bn to get to Scotland)
bbc.co.uk

This is Tamworth
HS2 Limited appoint project manager
CH2M Hill will be confirmed next month
thisistamworth.co.uk

Ealing Gazette – 26 January 2012
We want HS2 tunnel too.
Campaigners in Ealing demand equal treatment with Ruislip
greenford.ealinggazette.co.uk

 

On the Lighter Side

Did you say yesterday what you say today?
A video with some comments from current DoT Ministers when they were in opposition…

HS2 Limited looking for a Digital & Social Media Advisor
The best about this is that it is a Permanent Job. Perhaps they recognize they have an uphill task
econsultancy.com/uk/jobs/

HS2 Limited in need of Chairman and non-executive directors
Apparently Brian Briscoe, Chair of HS2 is leaving. Why not apply to be a non-exec who challenges the concepts all the way, or if you're interested in the vacancy for chair of HS2 Ltd, apply here!

 

 

Chiltern Society DVD

We have DVDs in stock. Cost £5.00 + p&p. Please contact the Chiltern Society Office if you would like to buy one or in our online shop here.

All profits go to our HS2 fightinh fund.

If there are other areas you would like us to cover please

John Gladwin
HS2 Campaign Action Team