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Chiltern Society HS2 newsletter
April 2011
I apologise for the length of the newsletter. There are a number of items of interest this month.
Primarily the formation of the Right Lines Charter Group, the Consultation Process and the release of information giving the background to the changes made to the Economic Case, as well as detail on the Assessment of Sustainability. HS2 have also added responses to Freedom of Information requests.
There are some interesting articles about HSR overseas, Airtrack and the Yes campaign.
Right Lines Charter Group
On 7 April, the CPRE announced the formation of the Right Lines Charter Group.
This comprises 9 national charities, including Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth, as well as the Chiltern Society. See details of signatories.
The Charter sets out 4 principles for developing a sustainable transport system, with High Speed Rail being one option. The principles cover:
1. National Strategy
High Speed Rail proposals need to be set in the context of a long-term transport strategy stating clear objectives.
2. Testing the Options
Major infrastructure proposals, such as High Speed Rail, need to be 'future-proofed' by comprehensive testing against different scenarios. This will help identify the best solutions for genuinely furthering sustainable development.
3. Public Participation
Early public involvement in the development of major infrastructure proposals, including High Speed Rail, is essential. People need to be involved when all options are open for discussion and effective participation can take place.
4. Minimising Adverse Impacts
High Speed Rail proposals need to be designed from the start to avoid significant adverse impacts on the natural environment, cultural heritage and local communities (including biodiversity, landscape, tranquility and access) during construction and operation.
When one compares these to the HS2 proposal it is clear that the Government has no published National Strategy, the testing of options has been inadequate, the Public Participation is clearly too late and recent pronouncements from Ministers indicate a closed mind. Philip Hammond claims to be minimizing adverse impacts, but ignores the impact on biodiversity, landscape, tranquility and access with over 100 footpaths being severed.
Further details are at The Right Lines: A Charter for High Speed Rail (Links to a PDF, which you may prefer to download by right clicking the link).
A number of the signatories to the charter have also published comments:
BBC News. 7 Apr 2011. Report on formation of the Right Line Charter Group.
Greengauge 21 Response to Right Line Charter
The 4 principles set out in the Charter appear to have some agreement from Greengauge 21 (a pro HS2 lobby group). The key differences are that they think that the HS2 proposals go some way to meeting the Charter Principles. However the key issue of a National Transportation Plan is rejected because ‘It is necessary to consider the length of time it might take to develop a long term transport strategy and get it agreed, which would entail its own consultation process’ In other words it would take too long to develop. However their conclusion is ‘Ministers will nevertheless be wise to engage with these national groups to explore the extent to which the four principles have been applied to date and any changes to the HS2 planning process that might usefully be made.’
Consultation
The Consultation Road Shows continue, with relevant shows at:
| Chalfont St Giles | 9 May | Blizzards Yard Car Park |
| Aylesbury | 10/11 May | Stoke Mandeville Stadium |
| Gt Missenden | 12 May | Link Road Car Park |
| Wendover | 13/14 May | Wendover Memorial Hall |
| Amersham | 18/19 May | Amersham and Chiltern Rugby Club |
Details of more shows and locations for the above can be found at highspeedrail.dft.gov.uk/roadshow
To help understand the case against HS2 and to formulate questions for the Road Shows, the following meetings are being held:
| Gt Missenden | 8 May. 2pm | GM C of E School playing fields |
| Little Chalfont | 14 May. 9am | Village Hall / Farmers Market |
| Amersham | 15 May. 2pm | Recreation Field |
Wendover HS2 has opened a shop in Back Street, Wendover, where you can get information and buy anti HS2 products. Visit www.wendoverhs2.org/news/602 for more information.
Ealing Gazette – Apr 12 2011
HS2 could cause West London traffic to 'grind to a halt'
From the Ruislip roadshow it is apparent that the east bridge of the Hangar Lane Gyratory System would have to be completely replaced to make way for wider tracks.
As this is the junction of the M40 and the North Circular, this would be a nightmare for North and West London, as well as drivers using the M40.
Read the full story here.
Economic Case
In April HS2 released a substantial amount of data on their website. This falls into two principal areas.
1. Economic Supporting Documents
These comprise:
• The Modelling and Appraisal Approach
• Further Analysis of the Demand and Benefits of HS2
• Model Output Spreadsheets
• Documents supporting the 2010 Supplemental Reports
Visit hs2.org.uk/supporting-documents for details.
2. Freedom of Information Requests
These comprise a list of FoI requests which can be viewed in either alphabetical order or date order. In a significant number of cases the information being requested has not been made available.
Visit www.hs2.org.uk/freedom-of-information for details.
Under the Modelling and Appraisal Approach, HS2 Ltd provide an analysis of changes between the March 2010 and March 2011 Economic Appraisals. These fall into 3 Categories:
• Appraisal changes
• Revised costs
• Modelling changes
The table below shows the impact of each change.
| Description | Net Present Value |
Net Present Cost | Benefit Cost Ratio |
| £bn Q3, 2009 |
£bn Q3, 2009 |
||
| At 31 March 2010 | 28,708 | 11,914 | 2.41 |
| Appraisal changes | (578) | (842) | 0.22 |
| Revised costs | (2,379) | 0.61 | |
| Revised 31 March 2010 | 28,130 | 8,675 | 3.24 |
| Modelling changes | (11,587) | 1,647 | (1.64) |
| Revised 28 February 2011 | 16,543 | 10,321 | 1.60 |
NB the BCR in this table excludes wider economic impacts
Below I will deal with some of the detail, but just as an overview, the Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) should have been 3.24, whereas by 2011 it has dropped to 1.6, due to the acceptance by HS2 and the DfT that demand will be substantially lower than previously forecast, and after the growth cap has been extended from 2033 to 2043. Without that extension the BCR would be 1.0.
Under Appraisal Costs the big impact is the switching of reporting of losses on fuel duty etc from a cost to a reduction of revenue. This alone accounts for an increase in the BCR of 0.32. This is reduced by the costs less benefits of the link to HS1. There is also a small benefit from changing the timing of discounting future flows.
The Revised Costs comprise an increase in the operating costs due to a revised price for electricity and the cost of skilled staff. However this is more than offset by reduced capital costs, a greater saving on classic rail lines, and a reduction in the bias for optimism.
The reduction on capital costs in 2.1.2 is due to a recalculation of construction costs, and due to reduced demand a delay in the scheduling of the purchase of rolling stock. 2.1.2 goes on to say that the net impact of this is £0.1bn, whereas the Analysis of Changes shows a saving of £0.745bn. The difference relates to HS1 construction costs, which are shown under Modelling Changes. This then leaves the issue of whether the costs of the ‘improved mitigation’ have been included. These include building ‘green bridges’ and deepening the cuttings across the Chilterns by approximately 5 metres. The question of the cost of compensation does not appear to have been revisited.
The increase in savings on classic rail lines apparently relates to an error in the original calculations of the reduction in km on these lines.
| Modelling Changes relate to a number of areas, but can be split into: | |
| • | correction of errors in previous models, better definition of travel times, particularly between London terminals and final destination |
| • | reductions in demand due to revised Government growth forecasts |
| • | the impact on demand of increasing fares by RPI + 3% |
Details available at www.hs2.org.uk/assets/x/77820
In addition, no change has been made to the valuation of business peoples’ time to reflect that time on a train is productive. This will further weaken the business case.
Demand as calculated by HS2 does not appear to reflect the impact of Information Technology on the need to travel in the future, even though this is being actively promoted by the DfT.
Assessment of Sustainability (AoS)
We have not had the opportunity to look at this in detail. We understand that this AoS has been prepared as a desk-top study, and therefore the actual impact could be significantly different. To establish the detailed impact requires an Environmental Impact Assessment. The Government has committed to prepare this once the route is decided upon. Frankly this is too late, and does not meet the UK’s commitments under the Aarhus Convention. The following link takes you to a summary of the AoS. (A PDF, which we recommend you download by right clicking the link).
This link takes you to the Library page for the AoS on the DfT site, from where you can navigate to the various parts of the report and its appendices.
Bucks Free Press – 3 Apr 2011
This report gives details of Wildlife & Woodland Loss. From a brief review of the AoS, this is considered to be unfortunate.
Promoting HS2
The ‘Yes to HS2 Campaign’ is now in full swing. It started with Mr Hammond and his team trying to promote HS2 in the rest of the country, and there are a number of pro HS2 articles being issued.
The attached article in The Guardian sets out his case, but a poll by the paper said 76.7% were not in favour of HSR.
Poll in the Guardian – Would HS2 be good for Leeds
TRL – creating the future of transport
Report on Hammond speaking at a meeting in Sheffield
Report on Norman Baker encouraging Scots MPs to back HSR
Yorkshire Post
Hammond tells the Yorkshire Post that he will not be worn down by people in the South
The Guardian – 24 April 2011
‘Yes to HS2’ looking for business sponsors at £10,000 a time.
Government announce Major Projects Authority (MPA)
On 31 March the government announced creation of the MPA. It is a partnership between the Cabinet Office and the Treasury with an enforceable mandate from the Prime Minister to oversee and direct the effective management of all large-scale projects that are funded and delivered by central government. Click here more details.
We will be able to see how effective this new watchdog will be when they review the latest HS2 economic case.
Travel Demand Management
Norman Baker, Philip Hammond’s Transport Minister is at it again. This article explains his (in my opinion, very sensible) ideas on reducing the need to travel, or incentivising travel outside of the rush hour. This builds nicely on my point in last month’s e-mail newsletter on the paradox of the DfT seeking on the one hand to reduce the need to travel, and on the other building huge capacity increases. This looks like a sure recipe for subsidies to Train Operators.
This link is to a DfT Questionnaire on Alternatives to Travel. It gives organisations the opportunity to respond by 31 May 2011.
Regeneration and the Benefits of High Speed Rail (HSR)
There have been a number of articles in the last month on regeneration. A selection are included below.
Daily Telegraph - 4 April 2011
This article from Andrew Gilligan makes sobering reading for people expecting to benefit from HSR, where he demonstrates that Ashford is lagging behind the rest of Kent and the South East in reducing unemployment and increasing house prices.
Daily Telegraph - 26 Mar 2011
This article refers to objections coming from Staffordshire County Council, based on doubts over the Economic Case and the damage it would do to regional travel to London.
Daily Telegraph - 27 Mar 2011
This article opines that the HS2 project is a criminal waste of money.
Tax Payers Alliance – 2 Mar 11
Note on Job Creation. This article demonstrates that the 40,000 jobs the government claim would be created by HS2 would come at a cost of 4 times the average cost a job created.
Evening Standard - 01.04.11
This article reports Philip Hammond claiming that building HSR will free up more lines for commuters. However he forgets to mention that this will not happen before 2026 for some and 2036 for others. He also forgets to mention the difficulties that will be created by rebuilding Euston.
Sunday Telegraph – 02.04.2011
Andrew Gilligan writes on HS1 commuting from Kent.
High Speed Rail from Overseas
There have been a number of stories recently on High Speed Rail, which indicate that attitudes towards HSR are changing overseas.
HSR in China
Both Mr Hammond and Prof Andrew MacNaughton, the chief engineer of HS2 have made statements that we should follow the Chinese example for developing HSR.
A recent article in The Financial Times – 14 April 2011 – explains that in China Liu Zhijun, the former Rail Minister and Zhang Shuguang, the former deputy chief engineer at the railway ministry, were both being investigated for ‘serious disciplinary violations’ a synonym for corruption, and that HSR will now use a maximum of 300kph to reduce operating costs and for safety reasons.
Will Mr Hammond and Prof MacNaughton now follow the Chinese lead, and consider using lower speeds for HS2 to reduce cost and improve the ability to avoid sensitive environmental areas. In my opinion this is unlikely as slower journeys will substantially weaken the business case.
Wall Street Journal
US States reject Obama’s offer of $53bn towards HSR on the basis that it is too costly. Read the article here.
The Guardian – 21 March 2011
This article highlights that while the TGV operates well, the rest of France’s rail network, particularly for commuters is a poor state due to lack of investment.
Nimbys or Reasonable Objectors
On a lighter note, there have been a number of articles about Nimbys in the press, not a few generated by Philip Hammond.
The real question is ‘Nimby or reasonable objector?’
To highlight this, we should look at Airtrack, a railway promoted by BAA to connect Heathrow with South West London. Fatefully, this passed through Philip Hammond’s constituency of Runneymede and Weybridge, with an issue related to three level crossings in Egham in the constituency. As the local MP, he objected to Airtrack and even accused Surrey County Council of ‘taking a bribe’. Is this the reaction of a Nimby or a reasonable objector? Please judge for yourself from his article(6 October 2010).
In my opinion, as I am sure he would like it to be in the case of Egham, Mr Hammond should look at the arguments being made, not at the source, in considering the reasoned objections to HS2.
Note: Airtrack has been cancelled recently. See www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-13042740
This article from the Financial Times also shows how the arguments against HS2 are building.
This article from the Bucks Advertiser on Mar 10, 2011, relates to comments by Mr Hammond that the local councils are ‘bankrolling’ the protesters. It also points that the Government is ‘bankrolling’ HS2.
Chequers Walk
The protest walk around Chequers continues. People are walking everyday and posting blogs and photographs.
I particularly like the following. They say that self-interest can have a significant effect on people’s attitudes.
Blog 24
I found this section in the Chequers estate act of 1917. “It is not possible to foresee or foretell from what classes or conditions of life the future wielders of power in this country will be drawn. Some may be as in the past men of wealth and famous descent, some may belong to the world of trade and business, others may spring from the ranks of the manual toilers. To none of these in the midst of their strenuous and responsible labours could the spirit and anodyne of Chequers do anything but good. In the city-bred man especially, the periodic contact with the most typical rural life would create and preserve a just sense of proportion between the claims of town and country. To the revolutionary statesman the antiquity and calm tenacity of Chequers and its annals might suggest some saving virtues in the continuity of English history and exercise a check upon too hasty upheavals, whilst even the most reactionary could scarcely be insensible to the spirit of human freedom which permeates the countryside of Hampden Burke and Milton.” Food for thought while I walk!
Lisa
We would like more people to take part. If you would like to take part, for details, contact Trish at the Chiltern Society on 01494 771250 or .
The walk will continue daily until the end of the Consultation on 29 July 2011. I can personally recommend it, the scenery is stunning. If you make the effort to climb Coombe Hill, you can see where HS2 is planned to skirt Wendover.
If there are other areas you would like us to cover please contact John at .
John Gladwin
HS2 Campaign Action Team
